Labour aiming to win two byelections as chancellor defends Sunak’s record, saying ‘economy is turning a corner’
Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editor
In one sense, there is no comparison between 2009 and 2023. The former was a severe recession, with output declining by about 6% over a protracted period. In 2023 the economy has essentially stagnated: growing by 0.2% in the first quarter, remaining unchanged in the second quarter and then shrinking slightly in the second half of the year.
A technical recession is widely regarded as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. You could get a -0.1% or +0.1% change, but how different really was the economy at that point in time? I would say it was broadly flat, but some people do get excited about it.
I think journalists need something quick and simple to understand, and I guess this [technical recession] meets the bill. But I don’t think anyone would seriously call that a ‘recession’. The common sense understanding of a recession is a prolonged and significant downturn in economic activity. So not just one or two quarters, and not just a 0.1% change, but actually something a bit more substantial.
Continue reading…Labour aiming to win two byelections as chancellor defends Sunak’s record, saying ‘economy is turning a corner’Larry Elliott is the Guardian’s economics editorIn one sense, there is no comparison between 2009 and 2023. The former was a severe recession, with output declining by about 6% over a protracted period. In 2023 the economy has essentially stagnated: growing by 0.2% in the first quarter, remaining unchanged in the second quarter and then shrinking slightly in the second half of the year.A technical recession is widely regarded as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. You could get a -0.1% or +0.1% change, but how different really was the economy at that point in time? I would say it was broadly flat, but some people do get excited about it.I think journalists need something quick and simple to understand, and I guess this [technical recession] meets the bill. But I don’t think anyone would seriously call that a ‘recession’. The common sense understanding of a recession is a prolonged and significant downturn in economic activity. So not just one or two quarters, and not just a 0.1% change, but actually something a bit more substantial. Continue reading…