Russia’s failure to advance according to its stated timeframes is likely to lead to increasing frustration amongst the wars strongest supporters, the Institute for the Study of War says.
The ISW says the grinding campaign to capture Bakhmut has forced millbloggers to shift to more conservative expectations for advancing Russian troops informed by “nine months of ‘highly attritional, slow Russian advances in the Bakhmut.”
Russian forces currently do not have the manpower and equipment necessary to sustain offensive operations at scale for a renewed offensive toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, let alone for a years-long campaign to capture all of Donetsk Oblast. Meaningful Russian offensives around Vuhledar or elsewhere in western Donetsk Oblast are also highly doubtful.
Russia will have to mobilize considerably more personnel and fundamentally transform its military industry to be able to support such operations. The Russian military‘s likely continued failure to achieve a decisive victory in Donetsk Oblast will likely draw increasing ire from Russia’s ultranationalist pro-war community.
The Russian effort against Bakhmut does not further the Russian military’s operational or strategic battlefield aims, and significant Ukrainian defenses in the surrounding area undermine any tactical significance that capturing Bakhmut likely has for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will likely have a window of opportunity to seize the battlefield initiative and launch a counteroffensive when the Russian effort around Bakhmut culminates either before or after taking the city.
Continue reading…Kyiv may be carrying out ‘fighting withdrawal’ but still too early to assess intentions on complete pullout, Institute for the Study of War saysRussia’s failure to advance according to its stated timeframes is likely to lead to increasing frustration amongst the wars strongest supporters, the Institute for the Study of War says.The ISW says the grinding campaign to capture Bakhmut has forced millbloggers to shift to more conservative expectations for advancing Russian troops informed by “nine months of ‘highly attritional, slow Russian advances in the Bakhmut.”Russian forces currently do not have the manpower and equipment necessary to sustain offensive operations at scale for a renewed offensive toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, let alone for a years-long campaign to capture all of Donetsk Oblast. Meaningful Russian offensives around Vuhledar or elsewhere in western Donetsk Oblast are also highly doubtful.Russia will have to mobilize considerably more personnel and fundamentally transform its military industry to be able to support such operations. The Russian military‘s likely continued failure to achieve a decisive victory in Donetsk Oblast will likely draw increasing ire from Russia’s ultranationalist pro-war community.The Russian effort against Bakhmut does not further the Russian military’s operational or strategic battlefield aims, and significant Ukrainian defenses in the surrounding area undermine any tactical significance that capturing Bakhmut likely has for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will likely have a window of opportunity to seize the battlefield initiative and launch a counteroffensive when the Russian effort around Bakhmut culminates either before or after taking the city. Continue reading…